Every major technological innovation promised a faster Tour de France. The data tell a more interesting story.
If technology is the main driver of performance, why did nearly two decades of innovation leave the average winning speed almost unchanged?
I analysed the average speed of each Tour de France winner using data from ProCyclingStats. The metric is calculated by dividing the total race distance by the winner’s total race time.
I started in 2002 because the UCI introduced a maximum race distance, making route lengths more consistent and comparisons over time more meaningful.
During this period, professional cycling saw a series of major technological advances: Shimano Di2 electronic shifting, aerodynamic bike designs, disc brakes, fully integrated aero bikes, tubeless tyres and wider 28–30 mm tyres. Each promised improvements in efficiency, aerodynamics, comfort or rolling resistance.
Yet none of these innovations produced a sustained shift in the process average. The winner’s average speed remained broadly stable over time. Then, in 2021, something changed.
In 2020, Tadej Pogačar made his Tour de France debut and won the race with one of the most remarkable individual time trials in Tour history, overturning Primož Roglič’s lead on the penultimate stage. Despite this extraordinary performance, his average winning speed remained within the range observed in previous years.
The sustained shift begins in 2021, when Roglič’s crashes removed him from the battle for the general classification and Jonas Vingegaard emerged as Pogačar’s principal rival. From that point onwards, the chart shows a new level of performance.
My hypothesis is that the biggest breakthrough was not technological, but human.
Extraordinary athletes matter. But extraordinary athletes with equally extraordinary rivals may matter even more.
Perhaps the fastest upgrade in cycling was not a new bike. It was having someone capable of pushing you beyond your previous limits.
